What are the Odds of Flopping a Flush in Poker?

It is important to know the math of Texas Hold’em. The strategy for the rest of the hand is determined by the cards that come on the board. It is important for poker players to know the odds of their strongest hands in order to increase their winnings.

Knowing the odds of flopping a flush, a straight, set, or even just a pair will help you to extract the most out of the hand while helping you to play poker in the best way mathematically. 

Here’s a breakdown of odds for flopping various hands in Texas Hold’em.

Odds of Flopping a Flush

New poker players like to play suited cards in hopes of hitting a flush. It seems like it will pay off if you hit a flush, but it can be also get you in trouble.

When playing poker, it’s important to be aware of these poker odds. If you are holding two suited cards, your odds of flopping a flush are 1 in 118. However, even if you do flop a flush, there is a good chance that your opponent has a higher card of the same suit and will be able to beat you.

The chances of two players flopping a flush at the same time is 205:1. If you only play Ace-suited and King-suited hands, you will have a harder time getting into this situation. Knowing these poker odds can help you make better decisions about whether or not to call bets to begin with.

You draw to a flush more often when two cards of the same suit are on the board. The odds of completing the flush draw on the turn or river are 3:1 if you hit the flop. It goes to just under 5:1 if you miss the turn. 

Here is a full breakdown from 888poker:

odds of flopping a flush

Odds of Making a Flush Draw on the Flop

Flopping a flush requires that we have two suited cards in the hole. Since it is more likely to flop a flush draw, it is important to know the odds of flopping four of the five cards required to make a flush.

The chance of flopping a two-card flush draw with any starting hand is 2.5%, 10.9% when holding two suited cards, 0.17% with a one card nut flush draw, 1.12% when holding Ax, and 2.24% with any unsuited hole cards.

The most important metric here is the 10.9% when holding two suited cards. Ideally, we would want our flush draw to be the nuts in this scenario as well.

Odds of flopping a Flush on the Later Streets

If you need one card to hit your flush after the flop, you have a 35% of completing the hand on the turn or river. 

When holding a Flush draw, the odds of completing our hand on the turn or river are approximately 35%. Click To Tweet

It is 19.2% from the flop to turn and 19.6% from the turn to the flop. 

Factoring in Implied Odds for a Flush

The implied odds of a flush will vary based on a couple important factors. 

First, is it a one-card or two-card flush? Two cards will be a little more disguised. 

Second is if you’re holding the nut flush cards or non-nut cards. A non-nut single card flush is going to be hard to play too strongly. 

Another factor is if the board is paired or not. Ideally the board would not be paired and you won’t have to worry about someone having a Full House. 

However, if the board is two-card (made with both hole cards), then flushes always carry better implied odds on unpaired board textures than one-card flushes.

Basic Strategy Advice

odds of flopping a flush

What Are The Odds of Flopping a Pair?

If you have unpaired hole cards, your chances of hitting a pair on the flop are about 29%. This means that you have about 2.45-to-1 odds against flopping a pair.

What Are The Odds of Flopping Two Pair?

In any given hand, your chances of flopping two pair are about 2%. This means that if you’re playing with unpaired cards, there’s a 50-in-1 chance that you’ll hit this poker hand on the flop.

What Are The Odds of Flopping Three of a Kind?

The odds of flopping three-of-a-kind are 1.35%. This means that if you hold unpaired cards and two matching cards hit the board, you have a 1.35% chance of making three-of-a-kind.

What Are The Odds of Flopping a Set?

The odds of flopping a set are about 9.25-to-1 against. This means that if you have a paired hole card combination, there is about a 10.8% chance of flopping exactly a set.

What Are The Odds of Flopping a Straight?

What are the odds of flopping a straight? The odds of flopping a straight depend on the cards you are holding. If you have connectors JT through 54, then your chances of flopping a straight are 1 in 3 (or 33%).

If you have any other hole card combos that can make a straight, your odds increase to almost 2 in 3 (or 66%).

What Are The Odds of Flopping a Full House?

What are the odds of flopping a full house? Any starting hand combination can result in a full house, but the odds of flopping a boat (three of a kind with two pairs) are significantly better when you have a pocket pair as your hole cards. If you’re dealth a pocket pair, you have a 1% (101 to 1 to be exact) chance of flopping a full house.

Preflop, you have about a 6% chance of being dealt pocket pair (16-to-1 odds against). With any hole card combination that’s not pocket pair, your chances of seeing full house on flop is just 0.09%.

What Are The Odds of Flopping a Straight Flush?

What are the odds of flopping a straight flush? The answer may surprise you. For hands that have four ways to flop a straight flush (suited connectors 54 through JT), your chances of making a straight flush on the flop are just 0.02%.

That number drops to 0.015% for three-way, 0.01% for two-way, and 0.005% for one-way straight flush hands. So while it’s not impossible to hit this hand, the odds are definitely against you.

Probability of being dealt a certain starting hand:

There are 1,326 possible staarting hands in Texas Hold’em. But there are several that are similar for example Q♥J♣ and J♥Q♣. So if you remove all those situations, you get 169 starting hands. There are 13 pairs, 78 unsuited and 78 suited combinations.

Odds of running into better hands

When playing poker, one of the biggest fears players have is when they are holding queens or kings and another player wakes up with aces.

The probability of this happening is less than 0.5 percent against a single opponent; however, the more opponents the higher likelihood of your hand being beaten.

For example, if you are holding jacks under the gun at a full ring table, there is an 11 percent chance that at least one opponent behind you holds queens or better.

Preflop match-up Poker odds

The odds of one player winning a Texas Hold’em Poker hand can range from 5% up to 95%, depending on the match-up between the two players.

What are the chances of flopping a straight flush?

With such limited possibilities, it is extremely difficult. Let’s cover a few scenarios:

  • You’re holding a suited connector (8♠7♠ for example). The odds of flopping are 1 in 4,899 (0.02%). 
  • If you’re going to the flop with a one-gapper (8♠6♠), the odds go down to 0.15%
  • A two-gapper 8♠5♠) drops to 0.01%
  • A three-gapper (8♠4♠) it drops to 0.005% 

Final Words on the Odds of Flopping a Flush

The type of hand we have doesn’t affect the likelihood of making a flush, but higher ranked cards make stronger flushes. The odds of a flush or better are affected by the type of suited hand that you use.